Sunday, May 10, 2009

Pol-Fi: Maya's Maya

As everyone has seen, the power of Mayawati in UP has continuously risen for the past few years. And now that she is trying hard to make herself visible throughout India, there is a possibility that she actually gets a significant number in the coming elections.

So, the question here is, if Mayawati gets a significant number of seats, and there is a hung parliament again, which is highly likely, what will happen?

First I'd like to see the chances of happening this what if. In the last general elections, that is 2004, BSP got 19 seats, most of them from the eastern region of Uttar Pradesh. But now that the power of BSP has increased in the largest state, something that is visible from the majority she holds in the state assembly, BSP can get seats in other regions of the state as well, especially western regions like the district of Bijnor where Mayawati started her political career and BSP won all the seats in the last assembly elections.

At the same time, BSP can also surprise with a seat or two in Madhya Pradesh as the party won 7 seats in the 2008 assembly elections whereas it had only 2 people in the last assembly.

All this makes clear that there exists a not very remote possibility that BSP gets some 30-35 seats in the parliament this time, which, if happened, will put Mayawati in a position better than Lalu Prasad Yadav, who currently has 24 seats in the parliament, but will be contesting lesser number of seats this time as a UPA ally.

So, the question is, WHAT IF BSP wins a significant number of seats and is in position to negotiate for positions in government? Let's see the options and possibilities.

1. Mayawati wants to be the Prime Minister. Says that if Deve Gowda with 46 seats could be the PM, why can't a 'Dalit ki Beti' be the PM? But nobody is willing to give her the seat. Plan fails.

2. Mayawati wants the Foreign Ministry, but argument comes that even with her LLM degree, she won't understand the language of Foreigners. Moreover, they probably won't understand a word spoken by her. At least until the day she becomes the PM.

3. Mayawati wants the Finance Ministry for herself. But with two successful Finance Ministers already there in the UPA, a novice Mayawati fails again. This is in case UPA is the alliance making government.

4. Home Ministry, this could probably be her best bet. With Shivraj Patil almost out of question and Chidambaram probably willing to join Finance once again after the shoe-ing, Most probably Mayawati will have all new candidates as contenders. Though Lalu and some more may want this seat, if Mayawati comes strong, she MAY get it.

5. Railways. If Mayawati doesn't get all those big things, she may have to remain satisfied with Mamta's old department. It'll probably not be very difficult for the UPA to arrange this one, but Maya may not want to leave the Chief Ministry of UP for a Railways in the center.

6. Opposition. Last but not the least. Because in her words, as many times there are elections, her position gets stronger. And till now it has happened.

Well, that all happens IF BSP wins a significant number of seats and the alliance going to make the government needs them. Now let's see what happens.

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